A Taxonomy of Explainable Bayesian Networks

Artificial Intelligence (AI), and in particular, the explainability thereof, has gained phenomenal attention over the last few years. Whilst we usually do not question the decision-making process of these systems in situations where only the outcome is of interest, we do however pay close attention when these systems are applied in areas where the decisions directly influence the lives of humans. It is especially noisy and uncertain observations close to the decision boundary which results in predictions which cannot necessarily be explained that may foster mistrust among end-users. This drew attention to AI methods for which the outcomes can be explained. Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models that can be used as a tool to manage uncertainty. The probabilistic framework of a Bayesian network allows for explainability in the model, reasoning and evidence. The use of these methods is mostly ad hoc and not as well organised as explainability methods in the wider AI research field. As such, we introduce a taxonomy of explainability in Bayesian networks. We extend the existing categorisation of explainability in the model, reasoning or evidence to include explanation of decisions. The explanations obtained from the explainability methods are illustrated by means of a simple medical diagnostic scenario. The taxonomy introduced in this paper has the potential not only to encourage end-users to efficiently communicate outcomes obtained, but also support their understanding of how and, more importantly, why certain predictions were made

Environmental Factors in the Relapse and Recurrence of Inflammatory Bowel Disease:A Review of the Literature

The causes of relapse in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are largely unknown. This paper reviews the epidemiological and clinical data on how medications (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, estrogens and antibiotics), lifestyle factors (smoking, psychological stress, diet and air pollution) may precipitate clinical relapses and recurrence. Potential biological mechanisms include: increasing thrombotic tendency, imbalances in prostaglandin synthesis, alterations in the composition of gut microbiota, and mucosal damage causing increased permeability

The importance of left ventricular function for long-term outcome after primary percutaneous coronary intervention

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the present study we sought to determine the long-term prognostic value of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), assessed by planar radionuclide ventriculography (PRV), after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In total 925 patients underwent PRV for LVEF assessment after PPCI for myocardial infarction before discharge from the hospital. PRV was performed with a standard dose of 500 Mbq of ^99mTc-pertechnetate. Average follow-up time was 2.5 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean (± SD) age was 60 ± 12 years. Mean (± SD) LVEF was 45.7 ± 12.2 %. 1 year survival was 97.3 % and 3 year survival was 94.2 %. Killip class, multi vessel-disease, previous cardiovascular events, peak creatin kinase and its MB fraction, age and LVEF proved to be univariate predictors of mortality. When entered in a forward conditional Cox regression model age and LVEF were independent predictors of 1 and 3 year mortality.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>LVEF assessed by PRV is a powerful independent predictor of long term mortality after PPCI for STEMI.</p

Writing in Britain and Ireland, c. 400 to c. 800

No abstract available

Molecular analysis of human endometrium: short-term tibolone signaling differs significantly from estrogen and estrogen + progestagen signaling

Tibolone, a tissue-selective compound with a combination of estrogenic, progestagenic, and androgenic properties, is used as an alternative for estrogen or estrogen plus progesterone hormone therapy for the treatment of symptoms associated with menopause and osteoporosis. The current study compares the endometrial gene expression profiles after short-term (21 days) treatment with tibolone to the profiles after treatment with estradiol-only (E2) and E2 + medroxyprogesterone acetate (E2 + MPA) in healthy postmenopausal women undergoing hysterectomy for endometrial prolapse. The impact of E2 treatment on endometrial gene expression (799 genes) was much higher than the effect of tibolone (173 genes) or E2 + MPA treatment (174 genes). Furthermore, endometrial gene expression profiles after tibolone treatment show a weak similarity to the profiles after E2 treatment (overlap 72 genes) and even less profile similarity to E2 + MPA treatment (overlap 17 genes). Interestingly, 95 tibolone-specific genes were identified. Translation of profile similarity into biological processes and pathways showed that ER-mediated downstream processes, such as cell cycle and cell proliferation, are not affected by E2 + MPA, slightly by tibolone, but are significantly affected by E2. In conclusion, tibolone treatment results in a tibolone-specific gene expression profile in the human endometrium, which shares only limited resemblance to E2 and even less resemblance to E2 + MPA induced profiles

Can Research Assessments Themselves Cause Bias in Behaviour Change Trials? A Systematic Review of Evidence from Solomon 4-Group Studies

BACKGROUND: The possible effects of research assessments on participant behaviour have attracted research interest, especially in studies with behavioural interventions and/or outcomes. Assessments may introduce bias in randomised controlled trials by altering receptivity to intervention in experimental groups and differentially impacting on the behaviour of control groups. In a Solomon 4-group design, participants are randomly allocated to one of four arms: (1) assessed experimental group; (2) unassessed experimental group (3) assessed control group; or (4) unassessed control group. This design provides a test of the internal validity of effect sizes obtained in conventional two-group trials by controlling for the effects of baseline assessment, and assessing interactions between the intervention and baseline assessment. The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate evidence from Solomon 4-group studies with behavioural outcomes that baseline research assessments themselves can introduce bias into trials. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Electronic databases were searched, supplemented by citation searching. Studies were eligible if they reported appropriately analysed results in peer-reviewed journals and used Solomon 4-group designs in non-laboratory settings with behavioural outcome measures and sample sizes of 20 per group or greater. Ten studies from a range of applied areas were included. There was inconsistent evidence of main effects of assessment, sparse evidence of interactions with behavioural interventions, and a lack of convincing data in relation to the research question for this review. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There were too few high quality completed studies to infer conclusively that biases stemming from baseline research assessments do or do not exist. There is, therefore a need for new rigorous Solomon 4-group studies that are purposively designed to evaluate the potential for research assessments to cause bias in behaviour change trials

Dorsoventral Patterning in Hemichordates: Insights into Early Chordate Evolution

We have compared the dorsoventral development of hemichordates and chordates to deduce the organization of their common ancestor, and hence to identify the evolutionary modifications of the chordate body axis after the lineages split. In the hemichordate embryo, genes encoding bone morphogenetic proteins (Bmp) 2/4 and 5/8, as well as several genes for modulators of Bmp activity, are expressed in a thin stripe of ectoderm on one midline, historically called “dorsal.” On the opposite midline, the genes encoding Chordin and Anti-dorsalizing morphogenetic protein (Admp) are expressed. Thus, we find a Bmp-Chordin developmental axis preceding and underlying the anatomical dorsoventral axis of hemichordates, adding to the evidence from Drosophila and chordates that this axis may be at least as ancient as the first bilateral animals. Numerous genes encoding transcription factors and signaling ligands are expressed in the three germ layers of hemichordate embryos in distinct dorsoventral domains, such as pox neuro, pituitary homeobox, distalless, and tbx2/3 on the Bmp side and netrin, mnx, mox, and single-minded on the Chordin-Admp side. When we expose the embryo to excess Bmp protein, or when we deplete endogenous Bmp by small interfering RNA injections, these expression domains expand or contract, reflecting their activation or repression by Bmp, and the embryos develop as dorsalized or ventralized limit forms. Dorsoventral patterning is independent of anterior/posterior patterning, as in Drosophila but not chordates. Unlike both chordates and Drosophila, neural gene expression in hemichordates is not repressed by high Bmp levels, consistent with their development of a diffuse rather than centralized nervous system. We suggest that the common ancestor of hemichordates and chordates did not use its Bmp-Chordin axis to segregate epidermal and neural ectoderm but to pattern many other dorsoventral aspects of the germ layers, including neural cell fates within a diffuse nervous system. Accordingly, centralization was added in the chordate line by neural-epidermal segregation, mediated by the pre-existing Bmp-Chordin axis. Finally, since hemichordates develop the mouth on the non-Bmp side, like arthropods but opposite to chordates, the mouth and Bmp-Chordin axis may have rearranged in the chordate line, one relative to the other

Biophysical interactions in tropical agroforestry systems

sequential systems, simultaneous systems Abstract. The rate and extent to which biophysical resources are captured and utilized by the components of an agroforestry system are determined by the nature and intensity of interac-tions between the components. The net effect of these interactions is often determined by the influence of the tree component on the other component(s) and/or on the overall system, and is expressed in terms of such quantifiable responses as soil fertility changes, microclimate modification, resource (water, nutrients, and light) availability and utilization, pest and disease incidence, and allelopathy. The paper reviews such manifestations of biophysical interactions in major simultaneous (e.g., hedgerow intercropping and trees on croplands) and sequential (e.g., planted tree fallows) agroforestry systems. In hedgerow intercropping (HI), the hedge/crop interactions are dominated by soil fertility improvement and competition for growth resources. Higher crop yields in HI than in sole cropping are noted mostly in inherently fertile soils in humid and subhumid tropics, and are caused by large fertility improvement relative to the effects of competition. But, yield increases are rare in semiarid tropics and infertile acid soils because fertility improvement does not offse

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole

When surrounded by a transparent emission region, black holes are expected to reveal a dark shadow caused by gravitational light bending and photon capture at the event horizon. To image and study this phenomenon, we have assembled the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometry array observing at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. This allows us to reconstruct event-horizon-scale images of the supermassive black hole candidate in the center of the giant elliptical galaxy M87. We have resolved the central compact radio source as an asymmetric bright emission ring with a diameter of 42 ± 3 μas, which is circular and encompasses a central depression in brightness with a flux ratio 10:1. The emission ring is recovered using different calibration and imaging schemes, with its diameter and width remaining stable over four different observations carried out in different days. Overall, the observed image is consistent with expectations for the shadow of a Kerr black hole as predicted by general relativity. The asymmetry in brightness in the ring can be explained in terms of relativistic beaming of the emission from a plasma rotating close to the speed of light around a black hole. We compare our images to an extensive library of ray-traced general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of black holes and derive a central mass of M = (6.5 ± 0.7) × 109 Me. Our radiowave observations thus provide powerful evidence for the presence of supermassive black holes in centers of galaxies and as the central engines of active galactic nuclei. They also present a new tool to explore gravity in its most extreme limit and on a mass scale that was so far not accessible